In cattle farms across the nation, heifer head totals have dipped to record low statistics. As of January 2025, the total 86.7 million head of cattle on United States farms is just above the lowest inventory of cattle in the U.S. recorded in 1951, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. This current dilemma is the byproduct of continuous herd contraction and has caused a national shortage of beef and a consequent spike in the price of beef products.
One cause of this issue can be traced back to droughts beginning in 2021 and intensifying in 2022 and 2023, noted Jacquelyn Prestegaard, Ph.D., an extension livestock sustainability specialist and assistant professor at Texas A&M. Those years were marked by severe droughts and caused cattle farms in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and other states to lose a majority of the healthy grass and forage acreage that was used as grazing ground for heifers.
In the aftermath of the drought, many farmers began to sell their herds to meatpackers because they lacked the resources to raise them.
The effects of this mass liquidation of heifer herds are still being felt nationwide. But USDA research on the U.S. Cattle and Beef sector outlines how herd expansion presents a way for the cattle farming and beef industry to make a recovery. Herd expansion however, is a lengthy 2-3 year process and one that has become a difficult undertaking for farmers due to the rise in price for cattle, the USDA research explains.
Cattle prices are projected, by a USDA market outlook study, to continue to rise. This will present further financial difficulty for U.S. farmers, especially small-scale farms.
Hurst Livestock Co. is a small farm located near Bryan. Owned and operated by Aggie former students Michael Hurst ‘18 and Katie Faulkenberry ‘19, Hurst Livestock focuses on sustainable agriculture and produces free-range eggs, grass-fed beef, pasture-raised chicken meat and seasonal products.
Hurst and Faulkenberry said that the farm is experiencing difficulty with expanding their cattle herds, as the cost of cattle and other inputs have risen. Hurst pointed out that these financial burdens have made it difficult for small farms to afford cattle, let alone attempt herd expansion.
“There’s a huge discrepancy in profits between cattle producers and slaughterhouses, [also] meat packers,” Hurst said. “It’s getting harder and harder to justify having cattle … because it’s costing us more money and we’re not seeing a return.”
Not only are cattle herds costly to maintain, but Faulkenberry explained how each cow produces little profit for a farmer when beef is sold to stores or directly to consumers. Faulkenberry said this is because only about 45% of a cow’s total weight is edible meat, so the cost to raise each heifer ends up outweighing its benefit to a farmer.
“And there’s such a major difference [in] what we get per pound versus what you see in the store,” Faulkenberry said. “Even though demand for beef has remained consistently high, there is little economic benefit for a farmer to invest in cattle ranching to meet that demand. Which makes this dilemma, from an economic perspective, a complicated one to resolve.”
Solutions to this agricultural issue will rely on sufficient rainfall and soil moisture to support forage and grass growth used for grazing through the rest of 2025 and into 2026, according to the USDA.
Government intervention, said Faulkenberry, will also be needed to help create jobs and give cattle farmers the support they need to make it in the cattle farming business.
“The easiest solution would be to find all the ranchers and give them their money to be able to buy back their herd,” Hurst added. “Realistically, a long-term solution would be one that would promote restricting land development and promote young farmers and ranchers.”
Emphasis on restricting land development by local governments would increase the availability of land for farmers, promoting scalability. It would also ensure the preservation of land specifically for agricultural purposes, which is crucial for supporting new farmers.
Hurst expanded on the importance of large land plots being available for cattle farmers. He explained that at least 3 acres per cow is needed to raise 100% grass-fed beef
“For Hurst Livestock Co., land is a big issue. We’re kind of landlocked and don’t have any chances of expanding to a larger scale,” Hurst said.
Another solution to the current shortage includes farmer focus on “risk management, planning for drought and making sure that you have enough forage available for your cattle,” Prestegaard explained. Also important is “growing grass on your own land instead of buying it from someone else”, Prestegaard said.
According to Hurst Livestock Co., sustainability is part of the solution, coupled with addressing financial responsibilities that burden farmers, in order to overcome the shortage running rampant through the beef industry.
Editor’s note: A previous version of this story incorrectly stated that Prestegaard tied the shortage to droughts that began in 2013 and 14. It has since been corrected.
