Sen. John Kerry’s, D-Mass, victory last week in the New Hampshire primary cemented his front-runner status in the Democratic nomination for president. Receiving nearly 40 percent of the primary vote, his victory symbolizes the opinions of many democrats in New Hampshire and across America: John Kerry is a democrat who can beat President George W. Bush in November.
A recent Newsweek poll showed that, in a head-to-head matchup, Kerry would defeat Bush 49 percent to 46 percent. While it is still early and polls mean little, these numbers reflect the sentiment felt by both political parties that the November election will more than likely be very competitive and close.
The electoral map that decides the presidential election is rather evenly divided. States with large electoral numbers such as California and New York have, by trend, been democratic in the last few presidential elections and most analysts believe they will stay in the blue column in November.
Bush can rely on Texas and a handful of smaller western states to provide a large number of electoral votes for his re-election campaign. The real contest will come down to a dozen or so swing states that are almost evenly divided between Democratic and Republican voting strength. It is in these competitive states that Kerry offers the greatest chance of any other democratic candidate to defeat Bush.
Kerry brings to the table an impressive resume of public service. Unlike Bush, Kerry actually fought in Vietnam, earning a silver star, a bronze star and three purple hearts. After serving his tours of duty, Kerry returned to the United States and led a group of Vietnam veterans in protesting the war. He has been a federal prosecutor and a lieutenant governor in his home state of Massachusetts until being elected to the U.S. Senate in 1984. Now Kerry wants to be president.
Until just a few weeks ago, most political pundits considered Kerry’s campaign to be dead. His campaign created a message based on core Democratic ideas as well as something essential to the rank and file of the Democratic Party: his ability to be elected.
Bush’s State of the Union address made clear his intentions to use national security as the focal point of his re-election campaign.
Republicans often consider themselves stronger on military and national defense issues. And often, voters agree with them.
Yet one thing that the Republican strategists cannot do is label Kerry as unpatriotic or weak on military issues. After all, Kerry is a decorated Vietnam veteran who has experience saving lives in combat. His numerous reunions with men whose lives he saved during the Vietnam conflict have received high media attention, and republican operatives know this. If they want to make national security a central issue in the 2004 campaign, Kerry has repeatedly said many times, “Bring it on!” Aside from his military record, Kerry has proven his ability to bring together winning coalitions. Kerry’s progressive Senate voting record will undoubtedly unite the Democratic base of Union members, African Americans, Latinos, Jews and the middle class. Additionally, his appeal to female voters on the issue of reproductive choice and his attractiveness to veterans will shore up support among many independent voters.
This coalition of a strong Democratic base as well as many independents is what any candidate, especially Kerry, will need to win a key number of swing states in November. States such as Florida, with a large number of Jewish voters and veterans, or Ohio, with a large amount of Union members and soccer moms, are just a few states that will play well for Kerry’s campaign against Bush.
While the Democratic primaries are far from over, should Kerry’s wins continue through the primary calendar, he will more than likely receive the nomination at the Democratic Party’s convention in Boston later this year. His impressive record of public service, along with a closely divided electorate, proves that 2004 will be an interesting political year to watch.