The next real trial for the 2016 presidential candidates is coming Tuesday, as the remaining hopefuls head to New Hampshire.
Similar to Iowa in its early placement among the primary elections, the New Hampshire primaries can set a precedent for the remainder of the elections — a precedent that can get the momentum rolling either in favor or against a candidate.
Iowa proved to be an interesting caucus for both parties, with an incredibly close race for the Democrats and an upset on the Republican side. Even though his concession speech was originally lauded for its humility, Trump did not handle losing very well in the end. The sore-loser streak is likely to be taken into consideration by the New Hampshire voters, just like Cruz’s victory and Marco Rubio’s surprise performance will stick with them, too.
The biggest fall from grace on the Republican side has to be Ben Carson, though. From his odd choice at last week’s Republican debate to recite the American Preamble, to a less-than-stellar entrance and performance at Saturday’s debate, Carson seems to just be riding out the remainder of his 15 minutes of fame.
For Democrats, New Hampshire should be a pretty easy win for Bernie Sanders, whose home state is right next door in Vermont. He’s polling well above Hillary Clinton (55.1 percent to her 39.3 percent according to The Huffington Post) and those numbers will likely remain true after an extremely strong performance by the senator during last week’s debate.
New Hampshire is a swing state which is what makes it such a great precursor to determine or predict the results of the election. Though it’s a smaller state with only four electoral votes, because it is a primary instead of a caucus, the results will more accurately reflect what voters want to see in a presidential candidate. Just like in Iowa, a strong showing here can mean a victory down the road.
With that being said, some candidates — like Hillary Clinton — have been able to establish themselves in states like South Carolina or Nevada, whose primaries are next up following New Hampshire. Candidates who do well in South Carolina have typically garnered the nomination. In fact, nearly every Republican candidate since the 1980s who won in South Carolina also won the party nomination. South Carolina serves as a reminder that while states like Iowa and New Hampshire can certainly boost the campaigns of candidates, it doesn’t mean a squared away victory.
I don’t think New Hampshire will be as much of a nail-biter for Democrats, as Sanders will likely claim a pretty clear victory in the state. The real
entertainment will come from the Republicans, specifically Cruz, Rubio and Trump. Rubio has surpassed Cruz in the polls, though both candidates are still behind Trump. Polls aren’t a fool-proof predictor, though, and Iowa was the case and point of this, as nearly every poll had Trump winning.
With that taken into consideration, I predict a fairly easy win for Sanders and a close race between Cruz and Rubio, with Trump falling into third place.