The Big Dance is officially here.
While many say this could be a particularly difficult year for heavy-hitting programs and over-seeded teams, anything is possible in the one-and-done men’s basketball NCAA Tournament.
Here are a few teams that I believe have just enough volatility to make a new Cinderella story out of their time in the Field of 68.
McNeese State
Coach Will Wade has made history on the mid-major level, making it to the tournament two years in a row with the underdogs out of Lake Charles, Louisiana. After investigations into recruiting violations during his stint at LSU, Wade found himself in an unusual place for college basketball in the swamps of Southwest Louisiana. He’s not looked back since arriving in 2023, leading the Cowboys to an overall 57-10 record and their first appearance in the Dance in 22 years.
The Cowboys have circumstance rooting for them too, as 12-seeds are historically good against the 5-seed. Currently, McNeese is posting a 35% win chance against the Clemson Tigers.
McNeese also boasts one of the best defenses in the country, sitting at 15th with 64 points allowed per game. If Clemson wants to avoid this upset, it’s going to be accomplished on the offensive production side, which they have struggled with as of late, pushing past 75 points only once in the past five games.
All in all, the Swamp Cowboys will be looking for their first win in the NCAA Tournament as Wade reportedly is set to take the job at North Carolina State next year.
Akron
Everyone reading this is shaking their head at the fact that a team with a -15.5 spread going against them is on this list. Get over it. This is the best Akron team in years, and it faces one of the shakiest Arizona squads in recent years.
However, Arizona still is a title contender under the record holder for most wins in his first two years on the job (61), coach Tommy Lloyd. Things appear grimmer for this Wildcat squad who finished fourth in the Big 12 and lost 12 games, good for the most during Lloyd’s time in Tuscon, Arizona.
With recent losses to Kansas, Iowa State, BYU and Kansas State, don’t be stunned when Arizona stumbles against the Zips, who are on a seven game winning streak after dominating the Mid-American Conferenceall season long.
Drake
The Bulldogs have already played the role of David versus Goliath against Vanderbilt, Miami and Kansas State, winning decisively against the Commodores 81-70 in the preseason Shiners Children’s Charleston Classic.
Drake’s biggest asset this year is their defense, ringing in at No. 1 in the country in scoring defense, allowing 58.4 ppg and forcing around 13 turnovers a game.
Their opponent, 6-seed Missouri, has some firepower on the offensive side with a trio of experienced guards in seniors Caleb Grill, Tamar Bates and junior Mark Mitchell, who all average north of 13 ppg.
Lights out defense against an unstoppable offense that averages 84.5 points a game should be a classic brawl in Wichita.
UC San Diego
The Big West is looking for its first win in the Big Dance since 2019, when 13-seed UC Irvine upset 4-seed Kansas State in a thrilling 70-64 finish. The best shot for a win now rests on the Tritons to slay the 5-seed Big Ten Tournament champions, Michigan.
Although this seems like a truly daunting task for a UC school that has never competed in a Division I NCAA Tournament — the Tritons were elevated from DII in 2020 and have been in the transition period for the last four years — there might be just enough cracks in Michigan’s canvas for a second round possibility for UCSD.
The Wolverines are coming off of a five-game stretch against four top-25 opponents in Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue and Wisconsin, dropping two of the five to the Terrapins and the in-state rival Spartans.
Michigan also struggles to keep a hold of the ball, giving it over 14 times per game. This play style is starkly contrasted to the Tritons, who forced an average of just under 16 and only gave up 8.7 a game.
Sticky (or non-sticky) hands will determine the outcome for the first time Dancers from La Jolla, California.
